Biden, Sanders, Warren continue to jockey for top spot, say two new polls

By Progreso Weekly Last updated Dec 12, 2019

Most Americans agree that George Washington was a better president than either Donald Trump or Barack Obama – but there are some interesting partisan divisions in that opinion. Jumping ahead to 2020, Trump’s reelection prospects are holding steady in the latest Monmouth University Poll. Former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders continue to swap positions as the top three contenders for the Democratic nomination. Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg enters the race with low favorability ratings among voters of every partisan stripe.

Just over 4-in-10 (43%) registered voters feel that Trump should be reelected, while a majority (54%) say it is time to have someone new in the Oval Office. These numbers have not really budged in the past month (42% reelect and 55% someone new in November). The current results are statistically similar to late September when news broke about the Ukraine call (39% reelect and 57% someone new) and August when the House impeachment inquiry was just getting started (39% reelect and 57% someone new).

“The impeachment hearings over the past month have not moved the reelection needle in either direction,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Trump currently has a personal rating of 46% favorable and 52% unfavorable among registered voters. The president’s personal rating has grown slightly more positive since news of the Ukraine call first broke, but the shifts so far are not statistically significant. He had a 44%-54% rating in November and a 43%-56% rating in late September. Moreover, there continues to be a wide net negative gap among those who have a strong opinion of the president – 33% very favorable versus 47% very unfavorable.

The leading Democratic contenders to take on the president in 2020 have also seen little change in their own personal ratings over the past month. Biden has a rating of 43% favorable and 50% unfavorable among all registered voters (identical to his 43%-50% rating in November), Sanders has a rating of 41% favorable and 54% unfavorable (identical to his 41%-54% rating in November), and Warren has a rating of 40% favorable and 50% unfavorable (slightly more negative than her 42%-44% rating in November). South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg gets a 34% favorable and 35% unfavorable rating, which is a slight improvement from his 27%-34% rating in November.

Bloomberg has a 26% favorable and 54% unfavorable rating among all registered voters. Bloomberg earns a split decision (40% favorable and 39% unfavorable) from Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, but has a decidedly negative rating among Republicans and Republican-leaners (12%-72%) as well as among independents who do not lean toward either party (26%-51%).

“Bloomberg said he got into this race because he wants to defeat Trump, but his campaign kicks off with even lower ratings than the incumbent. That is not the most auspicious start, but views of Bloomberg are not as deeply held as they are for Trump, so he has room to shift those opinions,” said Murray.

Bloomberg’s rating among Democrats and Democratic-leaners is much lower than other contenders in the field. Warren (76% favorable and 15% unfavorable), Biden (76%-20%) and Sanders (74%-21%) have broad popularity among party voters. Warren’s rating has ticked down slightly since November (from 79%-9%), Biden’s has held steady (from 76%-19%), and Sanders’ has ticked up (from 72%-25%). Buttigieg earns a 53%-18% rating among his fellow Democrats, similar to his rating in November (49%-16%). Bloomberg’s within-party favorability is also worse than entrepreneur Andrew Yang, who currently gets a 42%-17% rating.

Bloomberg’s current net +1 party rating (40%-39%) is similar to what he earned in a Monmouth poll conducted back in March when he initially flirted with a presidential run. Democratic opinion was evenly divided then at 27% favorable and 26% unfavorable. He had a somewhat more positive rating in Monmouth’s initial poll of the potential Democratic field in January 2019 (35%-25%).

Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters continue to be divided over who they want to put up against Trump in 2020. The top contenders continue to be Biden (26%), Sanders (21%), and Warren (17%). However, these three are in a slightly different order than where they stood last month (23% Biden, 23% Warren, and 20% Sanders) or in late September (28% Warren, 25% Biden, and 15% Sanders). Buttigieg is the preferred choice of 8% of Democratic-identifying voters (similar to 9% in November and 5% in September).

Bloomberg enters the race at 5% support nationally. He had 2% support in March and 4% in January when he was included as one of the potential contenders for the Democratic nomination. Other candidates registering support in the current poll are Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (4%), Yang (3%), New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (2%) and seven other candidates who earn 1% or less.

The poll also finds that more Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters continue to prefer a candidate who would be stronger against Trump even if they disagree with that candidate on most issues (56%) than say they want a nominee who aligns with them on the issues but would have a hard time beating Trump (30%). This result is virtually unchanged from the 58% to 34% response this question received in May and the 56% to 33% result in January.

Among those Democrats who prioritize electability, 31% support Biden in the “horse race,” followed by Warren (18%), Sanders (17%), Buttigieg (8%), Klobuchar (6%), and Bloomberg (4%). Among those who stick with issue alignment, 33% support Sanders followed by Biden (15%), Warren (15%), Buttigieg (12%), Yang (5%), and Bloomberg (3%). In Monmouth’s May 2019 poll, electability voters named Biden (36%) as their top pick, followed by Sanders (14%) and Warren (10%), as well as California Sen. Kamala Harris (14%) who has since dropped out of the race. Among those who valued issue alignment over electability in May, Biden (26%) led Sanders (18%), Warren (9%), Buttigieg (8%), and Harris (7%).

The poll also asked all registered voters if the nation’s first president was better than either of the two most recent occupants of that office. For the current incumbent, 71% say Washington was better while 15% pick Trump. Against the current president’s immediate predecessor, Washington gets the vote of 58% compared to 33% who say Obama was better. Among Republican voters, Washington edges out Trump by a narrow 44% to 37% margin. Among Democratic voters, though, the “Father of Our Country” trails Obama by a 29% to 63% margin. It’s worth noting that among independent voters, Washington does even better against Trump (72%-11%) than against Obama (62%-28%). This question was inspired by a recent Economist/YouGov Poll that asked whether Trump or Abraham Lincoln was a better “Republican president.”

“There is a combination of factors at work when you ask a question like this. Democrats may be more likely than Republicans to be influenced by recency bias, valuing what they are familiar with over historical opinion. It’s a fun question to ask, but I’m not sure what it means,” said Murray.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from December 4 to 8, 2019 with 903 adults in the United States. The results in this release are based on 838 registered voters and have a +/- 3.4 percentage point sampling margin of error. This release also includes results based on 384 voters who identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party which have a margin of error of +/- 5.0 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

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Buttigieg slips, while Biden and Sanders gain In primary

From Quinnipiac University

In the Democratic primary race for president, former Vice President Joe Biden is in the best position that he has been since the end of the summer, with 29 percent of the vote among Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today. Biden is followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders with 17 percent, Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 15 percent, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 9 percent. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has 5 percent, businessman Andrew Yang receives 4 percent, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar gets 3 percent. No other candidate tops 2 percent. In a November 26 poll, Biden received 24 percent, Buttigieg got 16 percent, Warren had 14 percent, and Sanders got 13 percent.

“This is the first time Biden has had a double-digit lead since August, and Sanders’ best number since June. While Warren’s numbers seem to have stabilized, Buttigieg’s numbers have dipped,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

Slightly more than half of all registered voters, 51 percent, think that President Trump should not be impeached and removed from office, while 45 percent say he should be impeached and removed. This compares to a November 26 poll in which 48 percent of voters said the president should not be impeached, while 45 percent said he should be. Today’s poll is the first time since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the inquiry that more than half of voters say that Trump should not be impeached.

“With Washington in turmoil and House Democrats poised to vote on impeaching the president for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, American voters signal they are slightly more inclined not to impeach than to impeach,” Malloy added.

If the general election for president were being held today, 51 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Joe Biden, while 42 percent say they would vote for President Trump. When Trump is matched against other Democratic contenders the race remains in single digits:

Bernie Sanders gets 51 percent, while Trump has 43 percent;
Elizabeth Warren receives 50 percent and Trump gets 43 percent;
Michael Bloomberg gets 48 percent to Trump’s 42 percent;
Pete Buttigieg has 48 percent, while Trump receives 43 percent;
Amy Klobuchar receives 47 percent, while Trump has 43 percent.

This compares to an October 8 poll, in which Biden beat Trump 51 – 40 percent, Sanders led Trump 49 – 42 percent, and Warren won against Trump 49 – 41 percent.

At this point in the 2016 election cycle, a December 2, 2015 Quinnipiac University national poll found that 47 percent of voters said that they would vote for the eventual Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, while 41 percent said that they would vote for eventual Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Today, voters give the president his highest score on his handling of the economy since the question was first asked in February of 2017, with 54 percent approving of the way he’s handling the economy and 42 percent disapproving. A similar 57 percent of voters say that they are better off financially today than they were in 2016, while 22 percent say they are worse off and 19 percent volunteered that they are the same. Voter perception of the economy has improved since October, as 69 percent of voters say the state of the nation’s economy is excellent or good, while 30 percent say it is not so good or poor. In an October 23 poll, 61 percent said the economy was excellent or good, while 36 percent said it was not so good or poor.

Among top Democratic presidential candidates, none are especially well-liked by registered voters:

a mixed 44 percent favorable to 47 percent unfavorable for Biden;
a mixed 44 – 48 percent rating for Sanders;
a negative 38 – 45 percent rating for Warren;
a split 31 – 29 percent rating for Buttigieg;
a split 24 – 23 percent rating for Klobuchar;
and a negative 21 – 40 percent rating for Bloomberg.

President Trump gets a negative 40 percent favorable to 57 percent unfavorable rating. This compares to the December 2, 2015 Quinnipiac University poll, in which Trump had a negative 35 – 57 percent rating. His future 2016 opponent, Hillary Clinton, had a negative 44 – 51 percent rating in that poll – similar to current front runner Biden’s rating today.

Similar to his current favorability rating, 41 percent of voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 55 percent disapprove.

From December 4 – 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,553 self-identified registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey includes 665 Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.