Afghanistan: Can that war really be won?

By Max J. Castro
majcastro@gmail.com

Can the United States and its NATO allies win the war in Afghanistan? That is a question nobody can answer; everybody, from the president to the top generals, to the ground troops, everyone is acting under incomplete information. There are many other questions: What does victory look like? What are the consequences of defeat?

The president is right that, unlike the Iraq war, Afghanistan was not an elective war. The guys who planned the attack against the United States on September 11, 2001, were there. This was their safe harbor and base of operations, and it was necessary to strike at them not only in retribution but also to forestall any new attacks.

But now it is eight long years later, and the Bush administration, having gotten distracted by Iraq, Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda are still around and have taken on residence in remote tribal areas of Pakistan. The conflict in Afghanistan has become a protracted guerrilla war against the Taliban, a fanatical, battle-hardened, and native force. On the other side, the government of Hamid Karzai that we are supposed to be defending against the Taliban, is corrupt, ineffective and has just carried out an election marred by massive fraud.

Meanwhile, on the domestic political front, President Obama finds himself in a box of his own creation. By claiming Afghanistan to be the good war in contrast to Iraq, he is in no position to withdraw U.S. forces even as casualties mount and domestic political opposition to the war increases, especially among his own political base. This all has begun to take on the feel of Vietnam.

The consensus of most observers inside the Washington beltway seems to be for more U.S. troops now coupled with an increase in the recruitment and training of Afghan forces to the point where they can defend their government allowing Americans at some point to withdraw. But will this moment come, when, and at what cost in lives, treasure, and political capital?