Everything, and the kitchen sink

From Havana

By Manuel Alberto Ramy

No one can give what one doesn’t have. The same applies to countries, and Cuba is no exception. The government has had to

• trim plans,

• tighten the belt of consumption (for the general population, that belt has seldom been loose),

• realign the wage policy according to each worker’s production,

• accelerate the delivery of land, overpowering bureaucratic inertia (and in the process strengthening the non-state sector with a measure that may extend to other sectors),

• redesign public administration by, in some cases, melding several ministries and organizations into one single entity and applying a standard of rationality that tends to reduce its overweight, and

• substitute imports because (a) the country doesn’t get credit from international lenders, (b) the lack of liquidity cannot be concealed, and (c) the relationship of imports to exports is extremely unfavorable.

According to the National Office of Statistics (ONE), the exchange of trade during the past year reached US$17.928 billion. Exports accounted for $3.679 billion and imports for $14.249 billion. You don’t need a calculator to figure out that the relationship is unfavorable by almost 4 to 1.

In 2007, Cuba’s total trade exchange was $13.764 billion. Exports accounted for $3.685 billion; imports for $10.079 billion. The figures indicate that, while the negative balance was $6.393 billion, in 2008 the deficit rose to $10.569 billion, in other words, an additional $4-plus billion.

Is it possible to sustain this relationship in the foreign trade? You don’t have to be a specialist to answer that question, particularly if we add that, according to the Office of Statistics, while in 2007 we spent about $2.382 billion in lubricants and minerals, during 2008 we spent $4.567 billion — practically twice that much — on the same items.

Expenditures on food products rose from $1.548 billion in 2007 to $2.206 billion last year, not quite double the 2007 amount. If we consider the fact that the prices of both fuels and foods don’t show signs of dropping significantly, we understand the reason for the efforts to reduce the consumption of energy producers. This is something the country has been doing with a readjusted plan for the industrial and service sectors, without directly affecting the residential sector.

Will we stop there? I don’t think so. Rather than ad-hoc responses, I perceive a willingness to take advantage of the current circumstances to open spaces for a refocusing of the national reality, within the existing limits.

A long-range vision capable of energizing the productive sector and strengthening the basic institutions that guarantee continuity once the historic generation is no longer in power (as President Raúl Castro has pointed out) is noticeable in the measures that are being cautiously implemented, despite the bureaucratic maneuvers to hinder them, or slow them down, or reroute them away from their destination. That attitude should not surprise us.

All political modifications, even if they come from the same ideological matrix, must face these and other difficulties and opposition, from both detractors and supporters. It is not a question of rifts but of different visions of how and how far we should meet the challenge posed by the national and international realities. The empire is there; it did not go away. Nor did our deficiencies.

So, the caution is due not only to the fear that sudden changes sometimes cause more harm than good but also to the fact that sudden changes must be made by consensus.

And while I talk about necessary consensus, I must clarify that it should not be restricted to the high circles of the nation’s political and administrative leadership. The economic realities, the structural problems impact on the mindset and attitudes of the whole of society and on the legitimate interests and motivations of the various sectors.

The way I see it, when President Raúl Castro spoke of a change in mentality and behavior, he wasn’t restricting his call to a style of direction but was talking about a new way of acting, in consonance with the fact that more than 70 percent of the population was born after 1959.

The new generations carry in their backpacks an enviable preparation that enables them to participate in the search of solutions by using their heads. The Revolution placed in their hands the tools they now must utilize. So, to the economic-financial situation we must add the component of a current society that is quite different from the society of 30 years ago.

We must make changes. They are inevitable, but they should be made without fully fracturing the national unity. For that reason, we must seek the broadest possible popular participation in discussions and in the decision-making process. Haven’t the people been the leading performer? There is no epic without people. What is needed is a new consensus of the Cuban society to define what type of socialism — yes, socialism — we desire. And I underline socialism because otherwise we stand to lose everything and the kitchen sink.

Manuel Alberto Ramy is Havana correspondent for Radio Progreso Alternativa and editor of Progreso Semanal, the Spanish-language version of Progreso Weekly.