The presidential election: What happens after Nov. 3?

Florida elections’ authorities have described “nightmare scenarios” that could occur on Election Day. Included among those they identified: protests by the neo-fascist group American Patriot; the disappearance of ballots sent by mail; and cyber attacks against voting centers and the dissemination of false news on social networks to generate confusion and uncertainty in the electorate.

According to Politico, these scenarios were considered in a meeting held last week in which election officials from Florida, representatives of the FBI, and local authorities participated. The goal was to prepare for action in case of these situations. In essence, they are anticipating that a combination of political violence, fraud and misinformation could occur in that state on November 3. These are precisely three of the pillars that are part of Donald Trump’s strategy to continue in the White House.

These “nightmare scenarios” cannot be ruled out for Election Day, and possibly with the highest incidence in key states such as Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and North Carolina. Given the complexity of the electoral political context, it is not possible to determine with certainty the scope, durability and impact of these events. However, there are currently favorable conditions for the development of these incidents.

Beyond the key question of who will win the presidential election, be it Biden or Trump, the uniqueness of this election has caused many to wonder with concern, anxiety and frustration what will happen as of November 3.

Although this question has multiple answers, any analysis must start with whether Trump decides to remain in the White House at all costs, which is one of the main factors that would influence the evolution of the above-mentioned events. Taking this as a fundamental premise, we cannot rule out that in the post-November 3 scenario several of these cases could occur:

• Donald Trump could claim that there was massive fraud and electoral irregularities linked to mail ballots and vote counting. If these pronouncements were to take place, they would be like a kind of “call to arms” for Trump voters, who from then on would try to take the initiative and capitalize on the electoral crisis.

• On election night, the final results are likely to be unknown. Experts agree that it could take several days, or even more than a week in certain states, as the flood of mail-in ballots could overwhelm their processing capabilities. This might be the case for decisive states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. If this situation of uncertainty occurs, without a winner being called, it would generate uncertainty and lack of credibility in the results.

• Violent demonstrations and clashes between Trump supporters and Biden supporters are a possible scenario. Neo-fascist groups, white supremacists and militias could promote social disorders and create the possibility of Marshall Law in certain cities. The recent disclosure of the plan to kidnap the governor of Michigan is an example of the possible actions in these groups’ arsenal. The scope and sustainability over time of these events would be conditioned by the actions of the forces of order based on the instructions they receive, which would be different depending on whether the state is controlled by Republicans or Democrats.

• A strong deployment of the police and other law enforcement bodies is likely, which in certain locations would contribute to incidents between repressors and protesters. One cannot rule out the application of the Insurrection Act by Trump in order to deploy federal troops. However, it is likely that the Military will resist this and reject the use of regular troops, considering the serious consequences of such a measure.

• As envisaged by the Republican campaign, the application of pressure and intimidation at the polls must be carried out on a large scale using Trump’s so-called election observers. Its strategic objective is to influence the results by exerting pressure against the election authorities. According to Politico, Trump observers were present in 92 of the state’s 100 counties last month during mail-in ballot processing in North Carolina.

• It is foreseeable that dozens of lawsuits will be filed in the decisive states in the face of alleged electoral fraud and other irregularities. The lawsuits that Republicans present would have the fundamental purpose of questioning the legality of the mail-in ballots and requesting the recount of votes. This legal course can have different outcomes that range from the lack of knowledge of the election results by the courts in certain states, to culminating in a decision of the Supreme Court as happened in the presidential election of 2000.

• You will see an increase in the current disinformation campaign aggressively promoted by right-wing media, with special emphasis on digital platforms. If so, there would be an intense media dispute that would contribute to the promotion of uncertainty, confusion and violence.

The current, highly complex scenario that the United States is experiencing, its volatility, and the unpredictability of the evolution of electoral trends, indicate that although the materialization of these situations are not assured, it is likely that some will be present on a bigger or smaller scale as of Nov. 3. However, there are elements that could contribute to making the possible implications of these events less devastating and chaotic than some experts anticipate.

First, polls indicate that Biden’s lead has been consolidated and expanded in most of the decisive states, notably Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Apparently it is a practically irreversible trend that could also soon develop in other states, including Florida. So far, forecasting models show that Biden is in a much more favorable position to win the necessary electoral college votes.

According to the experts, the estimates for this electoral cycle based mainly on surveys and other data, have corrected the errors made in the 2016 polls, suggesting that this time they are more accurate and objective. On the other hand, it is also true that their main vulnerability is the inability of these models to accurately calculate the behavior of decisive variables in these elections, such as: the suppression of the vote; intimidation at the polls; handling of mail-in ballots; the fraud in the counting of the votes; and the possible decisions of the courts.

Secondly, there is evidence that strong and significant participation of voters who favor the Democrat could create an avalanche of voters who could culminate in a punishment vote against Trump. If that blue tide does take place, the effectiveness of fraud promoted by the Trump forces would decrease. Under these circumstances, one cannot rule out a scenario where Biden prevails by a wide margin of electoral votes.

Thirdly, Trump is mired in a process of political deterioration that involves not only his image, but also his campaign, which has been significantly weakened after the disastrous presidential debate and, especially, since he contracted COVID – 19. Most worrisome is that certain of his voters are withdrawing their support and important members of the Republican Party are distancing themselves from a Trump who seems more and more erratic and desperate. His ability to fabricate an “October surprise” that alters the course of the election is substantially limited by his decline.

Fourth, in recent weeks Trump, unlike Biden, has had serious problems with fundraising, which has negatively impacted his ability to pay for ads in certain critical states. This complex financial situation in the final stretch of the election could be interpreted as an expression that the power groups with money do not feel motivated to support him. According to The New Yorker, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs recently wrote a letter to his clients letting them know that a Biden government would be good for the U.S. economy. In essence, in order to protect their interests these sectors require an environment of stability, and obviously Trump represents the opposite.

With less than three weeks to go until Election Day, the president is showing signs of political isolation and has lost the necessary momentum that his campaign requires for this final effort. By trampling on the basic principles and norms of ‘presidential behavior,’ his aggressive and confrontational showings, as well as his defiant attitude as if he did not care about the political costs of his actions, have turned Trump into a toxic person with a destructive capacity that generates concern and rejection in powerful sectors of the ruling class.

Trump has crossed the ‘red line’ several times in a system designed by power elites to preserve their interests and that disallows chaos and destabilization to become a natural and permanent state. Although he has been able to survive investigations into his 2016 presidential campaign, permanent scandals of people linked to him, and his impeachment, his main challenge is yet to come.

Even if Trump is not the cause of the systemic crisis that the United States is experiencing, he has been a triggering factor that has contributed to the structural problems that have grown in that society and that have been starkly exposed as never before. Therefore, the current U.S. president, by encouraging the explosive capacity of that system, has set-off a time bomb that could explode in his hands as of November 3. The clock is counting down and nobody knows if Trump can be saved.