DREAM scenario for Obama and others
Al’s Loupe
DREAM scenario for Obama and others
By Alvaro F. Fernandez
alvaro@progresoweekly.com
The administration’s announcement last week that the U.S. would stop deporting almost one million young, undocumented immigrants brought here by their parents had three winners. The first and second were obvious.
The third may surprise you. The president’s move brought Marco Rubio to the political forefront, again. It helped him in his political advancement.
Clearly, though, the president was a winner. He needed to come up with something to stimulate lagging Hispanic enthusiasm for him in November. Latinos are a key ethnic group he must turnout in high numbers if he hopes to win reelection. His well-executed plan showed in the polls immediately. A Latino Decisions survey of Hispanic voters in five key battleground states (Florida, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia) demonstrated that 49% said his announcement made them more enthusiastic about him – 14% said it made them less enthusiastic.
The other very clear winners are the 800,000 youngsters, brought here before the age of 16, who have been given breathing room – and a reprieve from the fear of having to look over their shoulders for ICE (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement).
Back to Rubio, though. The man is a talented politician. He saw an opportunity and grabbed it. And it’s allowed him to play on both sides of this immigration dilemma. The junior senator from Florida, who’s been in the Senate all of two years, complained that the president had not consulted with him before announcing his decision. Sure it’s an arrogant move. But it made him the point person for republicans on this issue. Giving him a national stage to continue to get his name out. Ironically there was more of him and less of Mitt Romney during the aftermath of this action. His answers, although often on both sides of the issue, more intelligent and better thought out than the republican nominee for president.
He also benefitted because it allowed him to scuttle his version of the DREAM Act*. Rubio’s soft DREAM version was really an act of desperation to offset the president’s popularity among Hispanics – at almost two-thirds of all voters when compared to Mitt Romney. With the president’s action, Rubio was able to blame the president for the death of his DREAM because, as he said, the president’s executive rule “ignores the Congress, ignores the Constitution and forces a policy like this down the throat of the American people…”
In my opinion Rubio was probably never interested in passing any form of the DREAM Act. His Tea Party backers would have balked at it. And he would have suffered politically. The president gave him an easy way out.
Finally there are those critical of President Obama calling his action a calculated, political move months before an election. I would retort by stating plainly that every move by any president is (and should be) calculated and political. That it benefitted him? Do his detractors expect him to hurt himself? And, by the way, it helped almost a million human beings, here in this country through no fault of their own.
Also and interesting to note, polls taken after political actions usually reach their highest peak immediately after or very close to the announcement. In this case, the 49 percent mentioned earlier will probably go higher as we get closer to election day, when family and friends of people affected by the president’s action, and who vote, start seeing actual results – for example, thousands of kids looking for jobs in the U.S., for the first time legally.
So it was a smart move. One the president had to make.
Before his executive action, the Pew Hispanic Center “showed Obama’s approval rating among Latinos dropping to 49 percent, even as 68 percent said they still preferred him over Mitt Romney.” It was his biggest decline among any demographic group as compared to his performance in 2008. A Latino Decisions poll earlier had also spewed scary numbers for the president among Hispanics. Fifty three percent said they were less enthusiastic this year than in 2008. Only 30 percent said they were more enthusiastic.
Give him credit; the president got this one right. This latest move will help with enthusiasm and turnout from a group he desperately needs in order to win in November.
No wonder republicans are still screaming and calling his action illegal.
* The DREAM ACT is a legislative proposal that would provide conditional permanent residency to certain undocumented individuals who arrived in the United States as minors, and lived in the country continuously for at least five years prior to the bill’s enactment.
