Its slice of the pie

MIAMI — Some days ago, it was learned that a delegation from the Paris Club, an unofficial entity composed of the world’s most solid economies, traveled discreetly to Havana and that both parties have shown interest in renegotiating the debt.

The debt, as an element of exchange, is one of the means utilized by international financial entities to evaluate the capacity for economic response of any state. The Paris Club has said that “Cuba has more or less been restructuring and meeting its debt obligations,” which in terms of an analytical reading means that the island adheres to the methods and systems established for the granting of international credit.

On the other hand, the World Bank, in the voice of the chief economist for Latin America, Augusto de la Torre, has stated that “Cuba is in a process of opening” and that “the modernization and updating of the Cuban economy are proceeding very seriously.”

Recently, Cuba has welcomed a wave of foreign diplomats. A broad representation of Iranian parliamentarians expressed their country’s need for and interest in increasing its economic ties to the island. Valentina Matvienko, president of Russia’s Upper Chamber, headed a delegation of senators for the purpose of “updating the vectors and formats of cooperation.” Wang Yi, foreign minister of China, on his visit to Havana, expressed the importance of “reinforcing the strategic and cooperative strategy.” And Laurent Fabius indicated the interest of his country to consolidate its ties with Latin America.

“Within that framework, we wish in particular to strengthen [our economic ties] with Cuba,” he said, in what was the first visit of a French foreign minister to the island in more than 30 years.

Also in Havana, Portugal’s secretary of state for Foreign Affairs, Luis Campos Ferreira, evaluated positively “the political, social and economic evolution that is taking place in Cuba” and affirmed that “the Portuguese people also want to invest in Cuba.”

Between April 29 and 30, Cuba and the European Union will hold a first round of negotiations toward an accord on political dialogue and cooperation that will reduce the 1996 “Common Position” to a bad memory.

All of these activities point to a formal recognition of the viability and trustworthiness of the process of restructure of the Cuban economy, not only in the formal aspect but also in the practical. Cuba is living through a process of changes that necessarily will energize its economy, and the world has taken notice of that.

Meanwhile, in the United States, numerous groups prepare to visit the island. Maybe the one with the greatest relevance in the economic aspect is the announced trip by representatives of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, a business group with more than 3 million members. However, in this case, the foreseeable results of their visit will go no farther than interest and verification. Unable to participate in the Cuban economy, the Americans will return empty-handed, certain that they’re missing opportunities.

Trade between Cuba and the European Union in 2013 rose by 8 percent; with China, 25 percent; with Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina, the exchanges have increased at different rates in the past three years. However, the purchase of food in the United States, permitted by Congress since 2000 as a humanitarian gesture, declined considerably.

The exchange between Cuba and the U.S., limited to medicine and food, has to be paid in cash and enjoys no kind of financing. The diversification of Cuban markets has encouraged other trade partners to participate in its economy. As América Economía puts it, “despite the embargo, the United States, only 145 kilometers away, is one of Cuba’s 10 most important commercial partners. Meanwhile, the island is one of the 50 largest markets for U.S. agricultural exports.”

While Cuba receives offers and adjusts its structure to the mechanisms of market and investment that rule world economy, the United States persists on an absurd policy that’s contrary to its own interests. If, despite the blockade, Cuba has purchased more than $3.5 billion in food from the United States since 2001 (an amount not to be sneered at), without that obstacle and in normal conditions, it’s not unreasonable to predict a considerable increase in that volume.

The reality is that there is an interest on the part of international economic groups to participate in Cuba, to join a project whose liftoff will determine their position and participation in an interesting future. There is a noticeable imbalance between Cuba’s credit capacity, the discreet increase of its economy, and the investment capacity of its commercial partners. However, it is those same developed or emerging economies that are interested in doing business with Cuba.

According to Standard and Poor’s, Brazil, China and Russia are among the most solid emerging markets. These three countries also are among Cuba’s main trading partners, along with Spain, Canada and Venezuela. As more and more markets try to join the Cuban projects, the United States misses more and more opportunities.

In this regard, the Cuban strategy of diversifying its trading partners should not ignore the possibility of a natural, equitable and fair relation with its neighbor to the north. It is evident that, as international eyes turn to the island, so do the eyes of the American business community.

The political changes needed for the U.S. to participate in Cuba’s economic opening will come from the pressure exerted by business, economic and financial groups once the cost of maintaining the embargo becomes evident and clashes with their interests. In a globalized economy, Cuba, as a bridge and a neighbor, represents not only a potential market but also an opportune space for logistical operations and the redistribution of merchandise.

The economic, commercial and financial blockade the U.S. maintains against Cuba has its main antagonist in the current process of actualization of the economic model. Each visit by an authority interested in participating in that model, each investment, each new law or regulation passed by Cuba to consolidate that process is a jab at the unfair mechanism that has lasted more than 50 years.

Policy is not made by pleasing a small group of interests. A country like the United States handles its relations bearing in mind the common interests of its people. To maintain an outdated embargo only to please a lobby with ever-decreasing prestige is contrary to the foundations and generalities of its foreign policy. As Arturo López-Levy said, “the pro-embargo lobby is not strong enough to hold back the bulldozer of a community of U.S. and Cuban-American businesses motivated to hold a trade and investment relationship with Cuba.”

While Cuba moves forward, at varying speed, and outlines its future in accordance with accepted models of operation in use in international relations, the United States persists in conditioning its participation to a change-of-regime agenda. But — and there’s always a positive “but” — it will be impossible to hold back the claims of its business community if it demands, albeit belatedly, “its slice of the pie.”

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