“En el año que nieve en Cuba” – (In the year it will snow in Cuba)

The expression translates – ‘in the year it will snow in Cuba.’ It means you should not expect the impossible to happen. There’s no point in wasting time or energy on something that just won’t be imaginable, so don’t aggravate yourself.

Well, it is snowing in Cuba.

Through a convergence of timing, coincidence, political determination and the energies of a few international personalities, the impossible has happened. The United States of America is moving towards normalizing relations with Cuba; after more than 50 years of mistrust, animosity and hostility.

Last week’s announcement by President Obama has created a tidal wave of media reports, speculation, and not a small amount of misunderstanding as to what happens next. It has also created an overwhelming amount of enthusiasm in Cuba and the hope that history has finally turned this page.

It happened in large part because of another seemingly impossible occurrence  – the first black man in the White House and the first Latino in the Vatican.

Obama, born from a poor mixed-raced relationship, became president through the unique expectation of hope for change in America (how much change has taken place is still up for determination) while Jorge Mario Bergoglio rose from his work with the underprivileged in Argentina to become Pope Francis. Both men achieved international prominence through a series of events most would consider improbable, if not impossible. The Pope’s personal intervention with Obama, as well as his writing campaign to the two presidents, helped advance the process immeasurably.  The third component in the drama, Cuban president Raul Castro, is not so much a surprising player given his historic importance to the Revolution. However, the timing of his more pragmatic presidency and support for extensive economic reforms in Cuba the past few years made Raul an important component in making this agreement possible. And a quick nod to the nameless Canadian officials who provided the two sides with secret locations in Toronto and Ottawa to hammer out the details.

Now that the agreement has been announced, the easy part is over. The next few months will see the details emerge as to exactly how far Obama can go to eliminate the worst aspects of the embargo and travel restrictions, with the understanding that both elements remain in the hands of Congress. The probability is that the president will permit increased exports to Cuba, and hopefully allow some Cuban products into the United States. The process will be slow, and there will be substantial problems to overcome when American business expectations come up against Cuban foreign investment laws. Resolving historic property claims against the Cuban government will also have to addressed, a matter no doubt discussed prior to the announcement of normalization. Also expected on the agenda is the process to return Guantanamo  Bay to the Cubans. Both issues will not be resolved easily.

While the end of hostilities is nothing but a positive development, it should be emphasized that the America’s strategy against Cuba has not changed, only its policy.  Since the Revolution triumphed in 1959 the United States has employed a variety of methods to change the regime – through isolation, hundreds of acts of terrorism against Cuban civilians, pressure on countries not to trade with Cuba, fining banks that do business with Cuba and of course the most extensive economic embargo in history and wide-spread travel restrictions that prohibit Americans from seeing Cuba for themselves.  These policies have been in place in various forms for the past 50 years, all designed to make things so bad for the Cuban people that they would overthrow their own government.

Obama finally accepted the fact America’s intent to end the Castro government by hostility and punishment never would work. So he decided on a different approach –the carrot instead of the stick. America’s goal of getting rid of Cuba’s social/economic structure hasn’t changed, just the approach. The Cuban side is well aware of that, and will respond accordingly when deciding how the influx of American businesses and tourists will affect political change. However, anyone who thinks the normalization process will fundamentally alter the political make-up of Cuba does not understand what the revolution still means to the majority of Cubans –who want change on their terms, not from the demands of a foreign power. America’s decision years ago to end the embargo on Vietnam and  designate that country with most favored nation trading status has had a major impact on the country’s economy, less so on its socialist structure; but Vietnam is still a one-party Communist state. Normalization with Cuba should be treated the same way,  to open up the economic opportunities and let the Cubans decide what political system they want, not for America to dictate.  If nothing else, this new relationship will hopefully develop a level of respect between these two former antagonists. Despite the difficult negotiations ahead, it is obvious that nothing is impossible.

It is snowing in Cuba and it feels good.