The coming letdown
Donald Trump came to power propelled by the massive support of the white working class and the votes of a large slice of middle class whites including, astonishingly, college-educated white women. These voters surprised everyone, from pollsters to pundits to political scientists. Now, it is these voters who are in for a big surprise and a bigger disappointment.
I believe the largest single factor in the Trump phenomenon is fear and anger among many whites at the prospect of losing their status as the default group in American society to Blacks, Latinos and varied of other newcomers. Yet economic distress is surely the second major reason for Trump’s success. The problem is that a Trump/Ryan/right-wing Republican regime will only aggravate the economic problems of Trump’s constituency.
That the living standards of the working class have stagnated or even declined for more than 30 years and that the middle class has been hollowed out during the same period is a documented fact. The impact of this negative trend was especially strong because, during the previous three decades, income increased significantly for the working class while the middle class continuously expanded in size and economic security. Trump’s army of white voters hoped he would bring back “the good old days,” in two ways: a return to the booming economy of the post-World War II decades and a restoration of, or at least a freeze in, the race/ethnic pecking order in terms of both numbers and status. They will be dismayed when they realize Trump doesn’t have the power to turn back the clock.
One important reason for the crisis of the U.S. working and middle classes is a substantial decrease in the rate of economic growth in the U.S. since the late 1970s. An even more important reason is the way that growth has been distributed between the “haves and have-less.”
Put simply, recent decades have been an era in which those whose money works for them (the 1 percent) did fabulously well, but those who work for their money struggled. In other words, income from capital skyrocketed while income from salaries stagnated. That is except for the highest earners, mostly corporate executives, highly paid doctors, lawyers, and other professionals, and big players in the financial industry.
Together these two groups, those whose income came mostly from capital (stocks, bonds, real estate) and those who received colossal salaries (and usually substantial income from capital as well) constitute the top 10 percent of earners who, according to Thomas Piketty, “appropriated three quarters of the growth” in the U.S. economy between 1977 and 2007.
When 90 percent of the people are left to vie for 25 percent of the relatively sluggish growth in national income, you have a formula for discontentment and division. The political genius of Donald Trump was to sense the buildup rage created by 30 years of stagnant or declining wages and direct it away from its logical target—the 10 percent who feasted—toward a series of convenient scapegoats: foreigners, liberal elitists, China.
Getting people to displace their anger away from the real source of their problems and toward vulnerable targets is the classic move of the demagogue. Stalin blamed “cosmopolitans” (Jews, intellectuals, artists, dissident writers) for the terrible economic state of the Soviet Union. Hitler vilified and then killed those he blamed for Germany’s defeat in World War I and for the economic disaster of the Weimar Republic of the 1930s: “money-grubbing Jews,” Communists, Socialists, and finally everyone who wasn’t and “Aryan” National Socialist (Nazi.)
Demagoguery comes easier than delivery and that’s where Trump will disappoint his supporters. It is already clear that the policies being pushed by Trump and Ryan will increase inequality even further and hurt the economic interests of many of the very people who elected Trump. There already is a slow-building rumor of grumbling among people who voted for Trump and now stand to lose their health insurance or money for local arts programs. So far, there are few defectors, but there will be when Republicans in Washington get their act together to implement their vision for another round of massive income transfer from the 90 percent to the 10 percent.
Meanwhile, in the states dominated by Republicans, lawmakers are not waiting around. In Florida, for instance, the legislature is considering a bill that will make it harder and more onerous to receive Medicaid. Who are the people on Medicaid? They are not in the 10 percent.
For decades, Republicans have been very successful in implementing their Robin-Hood-in-reverse ideology. They have gotten as far as getting Democratic presidents—especially Bill Clinton and to a lesser extent even Barack Obama—to genuflect at the altar of the Free Market god.
But that is not enough. The Free Market deity demands human sacrifice. The monolithically reactionary powers that be in Washington are ready to serve that up: savage cuts in health care funding; eliminating an EPA program to prevent children from drinking unsafe water; exposing the whole nation to the health problems that result from burning and strip mining coal and fracking to extract natural gas.
Donald Trump may get away with most of this agenda, but there is a limit as to how much human sacrifice you can demand and how much inequality a society can stand. The American economy is very dependent on spending by the 90 percent who will be the losers in the Trump-Ryan economy. To keep consumption at the level required by the economy, these people will have either to curtail spending or ratchet up borrowing. One road leads to recession or depression, the other to financial crisis.
Either way, Donald Trump is likely to face an economic crisis on his watch. With all levers of powers in Republican hands, blame for the crisis will fall squarely on the GOP and Trump. That might be the last straw that ends Trump’s reign of error and thoroughly discredits for a generation the Republican “philosophy” of afflicting the struggling 90 percent and comforting the already comfortable 10 percent.
