No President Trump
Donald Trump will not be elected president of the United States.
I understand the fears of people who see his seemingly unstoppable march toward the Republican nomination and who say they will move to Canada if he wins the White House. Trump is a nasty piece of work, and a dangerous politician too. In one of his campaign pronouncements, consciously or unconsciously, he uttered verbatim words that had once had come out of the mouth of Benito Mussolini.
The physical violence that has erupted at many Trump events reflects the symbolic violence of his rhetoric. He has even threatened riots if he is denied the nomination by his own party.
That kind of blackmail is bound to enrage many Americans and scare lots others. How many older Americans, Trump’s most solid constituency, want to see a return to the bloody riots of the past—the riots of the 1960s, the Miami riot of 1980, the Los Angeles riot of 1992?
It’s hard to understand why Trump would risk alienating a part of his most faithful fans. Especially because, at the other end of the age spectrum, among the young Millennial generation, he has virtually no support.
The polling numbers coming out of the latest USA Today/Ipsos poll of young voters (18-34) are clear and telling [Note: This article is based on the latest One Nation poll of young voting age adults carried out by Ipsos for USA Today. The sample size is more than 1,500. A secondary source is reporting on the poll by the web site Inquisitr]. Voters in this age category favor Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by 52 to 19 percent. That’s a walloping. Trump loses the young vote by way more than two to one. If the 29 percent of voters who did not state a preference break the same way, it would be an epic trouncing.
Broken down by ethnic group, Trump’s numbers are even more awful. Among younger white voters, Trump is losing to Clinton by two to one. And that’s the good news. Among Latinos he loses by four to one. Among Asians, it’s five to one. African Americans? Thirteen to one!
Trump is so radioactive among young voters that 25 percent of Republicans would cross party lines and vote for Hillary. The reason: “Trump would make kind of a mockery out of America. He’s kind of a jerk.”
In contrast, only 7 percent of young Democrats would jump party lines and vote for Trump over Clinton. And 20 percent of Republicans would decline to vote in a Clinton-Trump contest compared to 10 percent of Democrats.
Will the Millennial generation’s parents vote the same way? Probably not as resoundingly for Clinton and against Trump. But in the end, my hypothesis is that the arrow will point in the same direction, and definitely among minorities.
Then there is the gender factor. Republicans have been losing the women’s vote long before Trump ever dreamed of running for president. Faced with a choice of a candidate who exudes sexism and the chance to elect the first woman to the White House, how will women vote? The answer is so evident the issue doesn’t merit an elaborate analysis. The bad news for Trump is that women make up more than half of all voters.
Some might be puzzled by the findings of the Ipsos poll given that Bernie Sanders has been trouncing Hillary among Millennials. Trump should find no comfort there although Hillary should realize that as president she should curb her conservative bent if she is going to satisfy younger voters.
But the larger point is that younger voters—overwhelmingly—will not vote for Trump. Period. And, undoubtedly, Bernie Sanders, a decent and intelligent man who knows what a disaster a Trump presidency would be, will undoubtedly endorse Hillary Clinton. Such an endorsement will enable many young voters to overcome their doubts about Hillary.
The Ipsos poll suggests why Republican leaders are desperately trying to cook up a formula to deny Trump the candidacy. It would spell disaster for the GOP at virtually all levels. Donald Trump is the best thing that has happened to the Democrats since Barack Obama. But the chances of such a ploy succeeding are dismal.
But Trump has a significant number of die-hard supporters among rank-and-file Republicans. And he has predicted riots if the leadership, by hook or by crook, manage to block his nomination. That prediction amounts to a nod and a wink to the zealots to mobilize and erupt if that comes to pass.
Marco Rubio, who came into the campaign as a lion and exited as a lamb once predicted that Donald Trump would destroy the Republican party. That might be the only honest thing Rubio has said in a long time.
