Marco Rubio maintains commanding lead

Quinnipiac University Poll

In the Florida U.S. Senate race, Republican Marco Rubio is running away with a commanding 44 – 30 percent likely voter lead over Gov. Charlie Crist, running as an independent, with Democrat U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek third with 22 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Today’s results are essentially unchanged from a September 30 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, in which Rubio led Crist 46 – 33 percent with Meek getting 18 percent of likely voters.

Florida likely voters disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance 54 – 43 percent, a slight improvement from October 1 when they disapproved 56 – 40 percent.

“As the clock ticks down to Election Day, there is no evidence that Marco Rubio’s lead is narrowing. Anything is possible since there are still three weeks left in the campaign, but it appears Rubio’s opponents will need an earth-shaking development to deny him the U.S. Senate seat,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“Gov. Charlie Crist’s best chance for victory all along required that he outpoll Meek among Democrats and get half the independent vote. He is doing neither.”

Rubio is getting 85 percent of the Republican vote, 32 percent of independents and 5 percent of Democrats. Crist, elected governor four years ago on the GOP ticket, is getting 13 percent of Republicans, 38 percent of Democrats and 42 percent of independents. Meek gets 1 percent of the GOP vote, 19 percent among independents and 50 percent of Democrats.

Rubio gets 49 percent of the men and 37 percent from women likely voters. Crist gets 29 percent of men and 31 percent of women, while Meek wins 18 percent of men and 26 percent of women.

Rubio gets 68 percent of the white evangelical vote, compared to 18 percent for Crist and 10 percent for Meek.

“Rubio’s stranglehold on the Republican vote and competitive position among independents makes up for his negligible showing among Democrats,” said Brown. “Moreover, his vote is much more solid than his opponents, since only 8 percent of his supporters say they might change their mind, compared to 26 percent of Crist backers and 29 percent of Meek supporters.”

Rubio is viewed favorably by 48 percent of voters and unfavorably by 34 percent. Crist gets a split 45 – 47 percent favorability and Meek gets a slightly negative 33 – 36 percent score.

The backing for Rubio is reflected in a 52 – 42 percent preference among likely voters for a U.S. senator who opposes rather than supports President Obama’s policies. By a 46 – 37 percent margin, Florida likely voters want Republicans to control the U.S. Senate.

“Rubio has tried to make this election between himself and President Obama’s policies, not between himself and Crist or Meek. Given the attitudes of likely voters, that has proven to be a smart strategy that appears likely to bear fruit on Election Day,” said Brown.

Crist, once again, appears to have made the wrong choice about his future. Despite trailing badly in the Senate race, he gets a 51 – 43 percent job approval as governor, typically the kind of rating that leads to a re-election.

“Crist probably should not have quit his day job,” said Brown of Crist.

From October 6 – 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,055 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more data or RSS feed – http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml