Florida governor’s race too close to call
Quinnipiac University poll finds; Scott, Crist both get low marks for honesty
The Florida governor’s race is too close to call, with 44 percent of likely voters for Republican Gov. Rick Scott and 42 percent for former Gov. Charlie Crist, and 8 percent for Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
With Wyllie out of the race, Gov. Scott gets 46 percent of likely voters, with 44 percent for Crist, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. This survey of likely voters can not be compared to prior surveys of registered voters.
In the three-way matchup, Scott edges Crist 44 – 37 percent among independent voters, with 11 percent for Wyllie. Scott leads 80 – 11 percent among Republicans, with 7 percent for Wyllie and Crist leads 83 – 7 percent among Democrats, with 6 percent for Wyllie.
Women are divided with 43 percent for Crist, 41 percent for Scott and 8 percent for Wyllie. Men go Republican 48 – 40 percent with 8 percent for Wyllie.
With six weeks until Election Day, 81 percent of voters say their mind is made up, while 17 percent say they might change their mind.
“When fewer than four in 10 voters think both the Democratic and Republican candidates for governor are honest, you know this has been one of the nastiest races in state history,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “They have been throwing so much mud that they both are covered in it.
“The two voter groups that will tell the tale of the election are independent voters and those who are backing Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie. Gov. Rick Scott and former Gov. Charlie Crist are doing about the same with their respective party bases and former Republican Crist is not having any trouble being accepted by members of his new party.
“Wyllie voters are the bigger unknown because there is little way of predicting if they will stay with the third-party challenger or decide to switch to Scott or Crist in order to be with a winner,” Brown added.
“At this point, neither major party candidate is doing markedly better as a second choice of Wyllie voters. It is also worth considering that there is a consensus that negative campaigning tends to be a turnoff more to the very people who seem to hold the keys to the kingdom – independents and third-party voters.”
Florida likely voters do not like or do not know the candidates for governor, as Crist gets a negative 41 – 49 percent favorability rating and Scott gets a negative 42 – 48 percent favorability. For Wyllie 86 percent don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.
The major candidates also score low on character:
– Crist is not honest and trustworthy, voters say 49 – 37 percent. Voters also say 51 – 39 percent that Scott is not honest and trustworthy.
– Florida likely voters are divided 46 – 45 percent on whether Crist cares about their needs and problems, but they say 50 – 42 percent that Scott does not care.
– Voters also are divided 46 – 44 percent on whether Crist has strong leadership qualities, but say 58 – 34 percent that Scott does have strong leadership qualities.
From September 17 – 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 991 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1- If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat, Rick Scott the Republican, and Adrian Wyllie the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Crist, Scott, or Wyllie? (Table includes leaners)
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Crist 42% 11% 83% 37% 40% 43%
Scott 44 80 7 44 48 41
Wyllie 8 7 6 11 8 8
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 -
DK/NA 5 1 4 7 3 7
1a- (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................
CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
Tot Crist Scott Wyllie
Mind made up 81% 82% 83% 67%
Might change 17 16 16 32
DK/NA 1 2 1 1
2- Recalculated matchup Q1 asking Wyllie voters: Who is your second choice?
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT WYLLIE.............
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Crist 44% 14% 86% 39% 43% 46%
Scott 46 81 8 47 50 43
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 3 2
DK/NA 7 4 5 9 5 9
3- Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 41% 16% 76% 37% 39% 42%
Unfavorable 49 78 12 52 53 45
Hvn't hrd enough 8 4 11 10 6 10
REFUSED 3 2 2 2 2 3
4- Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 42% 72% 10% 41% 45% 40%
Unfavorable 48 21 78 50 47 50
Hvn't hrd enough 7 5 10 6 6 7
REFUSED 3 2 1 3 2 4
5- Is your opinion of Adrian Wyllie favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 8% 5% 6% 13% 9% 7%
Unfavorable 4 5 5 2 5 3
Hvn't hrd enough 86 89 87 84 85 87
REFUSED 2 1 2 2 1 3
6- Would you say that Charlie Crist – is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Yes 37% 17% 65% 32% 35% 38%
No 49 71 16 55 56 43
DK/NA 14 11 18 13 9 19
7- Would you say that Charlie Crist – cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Yes 46% 26% 76% 42% 44% 48%
No 45 65 15 52 49 41
DK/NA 9 9 9 7 6 11
8- Would you say that Charlie Crist – has strong leadership qualities or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Yes 46% 22% 78% 43% 43% 49%
No 44 68 13 48 50 38
DK/NA 10 10 9 9 6 12
9- Would you say that Rick Scott – is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Yes 39% 64% 10% 39% 43% 35%
No 51 25 81 51 48 53
DK/NA 10 10 9 10 9 12
10- 10. Would you say that Rick Scott – cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Yes 42% 71% 13% 41% 45% 40%
No 50 24 78 52 47 52
DK/NA 8 5 9 7 8 8
11- 11. Would you say that Rick Scott – has strong leadership qualities or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Yes 58% 82% 28% 59% 64% 52%
No 34 12 63 32 31 38
DK/NA 8 6 9 9 6 10
(From the: Quinnipiac University)
